Trump and the transphobes won in the US. But there are still ways trans people can win.

To defeat Trump and right-wing extremists, pro-democracy advocates must help humanize trans people in the eyes of Americans. Photo: Valeria Blanc.

Let us not beat about the bush:  the election of Donald Trump is a disaster, for LGBTQ people, for America, and for those who want to make our societies more open to diversity and inclusion. This is going to be hard. But this "culture war" is not over. There are so many good people fighting for a better world out there, and if we act appropriately, tolerance and compassion may still prevail in the end.

But first, let us see where we are right now:

The Bad

Americans have elected a person who is - at best - an unhinged, aggressive populist, but who also tick off nearly all the boxes of what constitutes a Fascist. 

We will now get a new administration in Washington packed with people who do not respect the basic rules of a democracy. 

In other words: If the anti-fascists of the US do not manage to handle that danger, the worst-case scenario is the end of real American democracy. This is what happened in Germany when parts of the establishment decided that Adolf Hitler was a man they could manage.

Many are exhausted from enduring Donald Trump's toxic mental instability for over eight years. There is no rest where we can have moments in safe spaces of rationality and optimism. Trump is a seriously sick man, a narcissist incapable of genuine human compassion. And he is getting worse. The next four years are going to be bad.

But we are not where the Germans were in 1933 yet. And it is important to keep that in mind. This is not the end of this story. Actually, this may be the start of a better one.

The Ugly

Trump & Co have left any qualms they might have had about using the old Fascist playbook - as in using "The Other" as scape goats for everything that is wrong in the world.

"The Other" are, at this time in American history, immigrants, people of color, independent women and LGBTQ people. They are grouped together under vague umbrella terms like "communists", "socialists", and "liberals". These are people who, according to this narrative, threaten the very fabric of civilized society, a society which is based on  traditional cishet family units run by white men.

Transgender people are the perfect scape goats in this playbook, as they threaten what the populists see as the self-evident nature of biological sex and gender roles. 

Men are, according to this view,  different than women in essence. It is the male essence that make "real men" strong and effective leaders. The true nature of women is to become compassionate mothers, not presidents. Just listen to J.D. Vance.   If someone who is seen as a man realizes that she is a woman, that natural order is threatened. If a "woman becomes a man", "she" assumes a role that is not hers.

As in the Nazi campaigns against the Jews, the Trumpian war against transgender people is presented as a defense of helpless children. These children  are seduced by evil into becoming something they are neither by nature nor the laws of God. 

This narrative relates to the QAnon myth alleging that wealthy Democrats, such as the Clintons, run pedophile  pedophile trafficking rings. In the transgender case,  an alliance of transgender activists, pro-trans medical staff and gender researchers have replaced the Freemasons and the Jews of the Nazi narrative.

The Republicans are actively exploiting the irrational sexual anxieties of the American people. These fears are then projected onto those who do not fit the rules of their game. 

And as we saw in the 1930s and the 1940s this can lead to horrible policies and immense suffering. The Republicans have already caused a lot of harm to transgender people in red states. Trump has promised to engage the federal apparatus to "protect children" against the "gender cult". 

Make no mistake about it: In other countries both TERFs and Fascists will be encouraged by what has happened in the US, and they will intensify their attacks on trans people.

(See the article  Today's anti-trans activism is about so much more than transgender people for more on this.)

The Good:

What can give us hope in such a situation?

Actually, there is a lot that LGBTQ people and their allies can do in order to help trans people. We have a lot of resources.

First: Keep in mind that half of the American electorate rejected Donald Trump. That does not mean that half of the American population are pro-trans per se or that they are engaged in transgender issues. But most of them believe in a society where people are allowed to explore their own destiny. 

Indeed, polls indicate that a majority of Americans believe that trans people should be accepted, even if the same Americans do not necessarily understand or accept the stories trans people and health experts tell them. Even Republicans didn't like the recent anti-trans election campaigns.  Trump won because of the economy, not anti-trans propaganda.

As Trump's persecution of those he do not like intensifies, it will also become clearer to all people that the attacks against trans people are not really about protecting cishet children, but a ploy meant to distract people from what most consider essential issues, like the economy and welfare.

In other words: Instead of trying to pretend the transgender issue is of little relevance (as Kamala Harris did), there is a case to be made for presenting the fate of transgender Americans as central to the survival of American democracy. 

This will draw more attention to trans people, for sure, but right now I think we have to accept that that will happen anyway. The defenders of democracy must be much more vocal about trans issues. 

The good news here is that the pro-democracy front has a lot of knowledge and brainpower. It might look like America has completely abandoned rationality and fact-based discussions in favor of irrational conspiracy-theories, but the truth is that a significant portion of American adults have higher education and college degrees. They are not necessarily smarter than their opponents, but they have at least some basic training in critical thinking, competences that can be used effectively in this struggle. 

The Bad that Might Lead to Good

Second: The second Trump presidency will most likely be a chaotic nightmare of mismanagement and crazy policies. The relatively sane people that stopped Trump from doing too much damage in his first term are gone.

What happens next will be exhausting for both Americans and those in  the world who wishes America well. But if one of the main reasons so many independents voted for Trump was the economy, the Trump tariffs alone will show them that the Trump administration is not going to make their economic situation better. It will make it much worse.

And if Trump actually follows up promises of making RFK Jr. a health czar and allows Elon Musk to destroy the federal welfare system, the mood may shift quickly. Let us keep in mind that the Brazilians let go of their right wing extremist when they realized that he was no better than those who came before him.

But if pro-democracy politicians and activists want to benefit from such a backlash, they need to reframe their understanding of the American crisis. The crisis is systemic, caused by technological change (which has transformed previously job intensive industries) and policies undermining a fair redistribution of wealth in society. 

The rich have gotten richer and more powerful, while significant portions of the middle and working classes are struggling to make ends meet. Kamala Harris's defeat can be explained by inflation and high interest rates. This is not something "the market" or new innovations will fix by themselves. 

If the democratic politicians of the US do not face the systemic properties of the current crisis, and do something about them, the American polarization and the accompanying hostilities will get only worse and worse. The only ones who benefit from that are the Fascists.

When  people feel that they are seen, understood and cared for, their fear subsides and they are much less likely to allow manipulators to direct their anger towards scapegoats like people of color and trans people. In other words: The defense of trans people cannot be reduced to specific pro-trans policies and instruments. It must be seen as part of a larger reform of society.

We need to understand the psychology of fear and hope. This struggle cannot be reduced to fact-based arguments about the reality of gender dysphoria and the fact that trans people are of no threat to cis people. If you want to reduce the bigotry of bigots, you need to take away the fuel that drives their fear and prejudices.

Fascism harness people's fear of uncertainty and social exclusion by redirecting their anger towards outsiders. 
Illustration: Pandagolik.

What else?

It would be tempting to withdraw from the whole conflict and stop engaging with politics and transphobes. But if all LGBTQ people and their allies did that, it would not take long before being trans is completely outlawed in all of the US. There is a good chance the reactionaries will be going after the rest of the letters of the LGBTQ+ acronym  next.

We need to create strong communities for support of trans and queer people both online and offline. It is especially important to help young trans people who do not have the experience and knowledge that may make all of this understandable to them. Each and everyone of us cannot solve these problems by our own, but we can all do our share. One person helping another trans person thrive is a victory.

We need to make sure that the rest of the LGBTQ community is fully committed to defend and support trans people.

We need to build alliances with positive cis-people and organizations, and get them to make the argument that anti-trans policies represents attacks on democracy and tolerance and that this is not only about transgender lives.

We need to continue to make trans people visible. I see fewer and fewer positive transgender life stories  in the media. That is understandable given the amount of harassment many trans people face, but this is also very dangerous. If we are to gain more support for pro-trans policies trans people have to be visible. If not, the transphobes will succeed in dehumanizing trans people.

In the blue states of the US, politicians and activists must continue to build walls against transphobia. In other democratic countries pro-democracy politicians and activists must intensify their support of trans people.

We need to continue to celebrate trans identities and gender expanding expressions. Our mental health and our quality of life requires safe spaces outside the realm of politics where we can just be who we are. This applies to those who are out in the open and those whose gender variance is still hidden. If everything is reduced to political battles, many will soon lose the ability to fight. This means that LGBTQ bars, clubs, societies, parades and personal networks are essential. And we need to give ourselves time and room to rest and recharge.

I know that many of us hoped that this election would be a positive turning point. It is not and we have to prepare for more years of suffering and hard work.  But if we do this right, we may prevail.

See also: How We Survive If He Comes Back: A Coping Guide For LGBTQ Folx

Donald Trump's horrific plan for transgender people